by Steve Freed,
Grain are mixed to lower. SX is unchanged and near 9.44. CZ is unchanged and near 3.53. WZ is down 4 cents and near 4.31. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold and copper are higher.
Fact the Pro Farmer tour estimated the US 2017 corn yield near 167 and soybean yield near 48.5 could offer support to futures until the USDA Sep crop report.
The 11-16 day forecast now has average to above average rainfall in the southern Plains and most of the Midwest with below average precip in the northern Plains; frost chances are out there. Cool temps could limit stress but lack of rains over the dry areas could limit the upside in yields.
Corn and wheat futures are oversold. Still, large World corn and wheat supplies could limit the upside. Slowdown in Brazil farmer selling corn could support corn futures.
Talk of lower demand for US wheat and corn exports due to higher Black Sea and South America crops could also limit the upside in prices. CZ support is near 3.50. Resistance 3.60.
Funds are shorter soybeans, corn and wheat than expected. SX support is near 9.40. Resistance is near 9.50. Pick up in China buying and slow farmer selling could support soybeans.
Annual US Farm Progress show is this week in Decatur, Illinois.
Funds sold 2,000 soybeans, 1,000 soymeal, 2,000 soyoil and 11,000 corn and bought 2,000 wheat on Friday. Funds are estimated to be short 23,000 soybeans, short 35,000 soymeal, long 48,000 soyoil, short 37,000 corn and short 60,000 wheat.
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