Sept 15 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are lower. SX is down 3 cents and near 9.72. CZ is down 1 cent and near 3.53. WZ is down 1 cent and near 4.41. US Dollar is lower. Trade watching N Korea and London bombing.

Informa est US 2018 corn acres near 91.9 mil acres vs 90.9 this year. They est US 2017 corn acres near 90.7 due to recent released FSA crop insurance enrollment data. Informa est US 2018 soybean acres near 89.1 mil versus 89.5 this year. Their 2017 soybean acres estimate is now near 90.3. They est US 2018 all wheat acres near 45.8 versus 45.7 in 2017. Their est of 2017 wheat acres is near 45.1. 2018 US cotton acres are est near 12.0 vs 12.6 in 2017. Rice 2018 acres are est near 2.6 vs 2.49 in 2017.

Informa also estimated the 2017 US all wheat crop near 1,660 mil bu vs USDA est of 1,739. Winter Wheat is est near 1,267 or 20 mil bu below USDA. Spring wheat crop is est near 339 mil bu or 63 below USDA. Durum is estimated near 55 mil bu or 4 mil above USDA.

USDA final estate of US 2017 small grain production will be September 29.

US NOPA August U.S. soy crush trade estimate seen at 137.501 mln bushels—-will be released today at 11 a.m. CDT

——-NOPA reported a crush of 131.822 million bushels for August 2016

——-Crush forecasts ranged from 133.100 million to 144.700 million bushels

——-NOPA reported a July crush of 144.718 million bushels

——-Forecast on soyoil stocks as of Aug. 31 at 1.396 billion lbs

——-Down from 1.558 billion lbs at the end of July

——-Estimates for soyoil stocks ranged from 1.300 billion lbs to 1.480 billion lbs

——-NOPA reported soyoil stocks of 1.620 billion lbs at the end of August 2016

US Oct fob soybean price is near 380, Brazil 389 and Argentina 382. Argentina farmer increased cash sales on recent rally in futures. US Oct fob soymeal prices are near 336, Brazil 320 and Argentina 318. US Oct fob Soyoil prices are near 821. Brazil 791 and Argentina 788.

Brazil farmers are waiting for rains to plant the 2018 crop. Argentina farmers starting to plant the 2018 corn crop but rains are slowing progress. US Oct fob corn prices are near 157, Brazil 159, Argentina 149 and Ukraine 161.

New global demand may be helping wheat prices. Large Russian crop still offering resistance. US SRW

Oct fob prices near 194, France 191 and Russia 186.

The Midwest weather will see temperatures warming with Chicago heading for its warmest weekend in a month. The next seven days could see much above normal temperatures throughout the Midwest with some precipitation early next week expected.

The 11-16 day forecast has below normal temperatures in the Northwest and West Coast region with above normal precipitation in the Northwest region. The Midwest will see above normal temperatures and normal to above normal precipitation. The East Coast region will see above normal temperatures with below normal precipitation.

Hurricane Jose should stay offshore but will batter the US Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with waves in excess of 9 feet to work up the East Coast.

Funds bought 10,000 soybeans, 5,000 soymeal and 5,000 corn and sold 1,000 soyoil and 1,000 wheat on Thursday. Funds are estimated to be short 14,000 soybeans, short 38,000 soymeal, long 86,000 soyoil, short 122,000 corn and short 86,000 wheat.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2017-09-15T12:10:21+00:00 September 15th, 2017|