Oct 5 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SX is up 3 cents and near 9.61. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.49. WZ is down 1 cent and near 4.41. Talk of China buying US soybeans and uncertain Brazil weather may be helping soybeans. Key report today will be US export sales. US Dollar is higher.

Brazil is expected to export a record 65 million tons of soy grains in 2018 although the country’s overall output may fall, industry group Abiove said in its second forecast for the season; Abiove estimated Brazil’s output at 108.5 million tons, down from 113.8 million tons in a September forecast; it also kept the same soy processing estimates at 43 million tons.

The European Commission increased its monthly estimate of 2017/18 usable soft wheat production in the European Union by 1 million tons to 140.4 million tons; that compared with 133.7 million tons produced in 2016/17; the Commission also increased its outlook for EU soft wheat exports in 2017/18 by 1 million tons to 27.0 million, against 25.1 million in 2016/17

The Midwest US weather forecast has no major changes as fairly soaking rains are seen for much of the region before quieting down for the weekend and most of next week. Temps will be cooling to average with some below average temps early next week but, no longer seeing freezing temps.

The Southern US Plains weather has no major changes as soaking rains are seen for Kansas with lighter amounts over Oklahoma and Texas; the European model is quiet next week for the region with the GFS model indicating rain.

The South American weather forecast has no major changes as dry weather is seen for northern Brazil with light to moderate amounts in the south; the 6-10 day has light to moderate rains for Argentina, light to moderate rains in southern Brazil, and dry elsewhere. Temps seen running average to below in most areas over the next ten days.

Funds bought 2,000 soybeans and 2,000 soyoil and sold 1,000 soymeal, 6,000 corn and 4,000 wheat on Wednesday. Funds are estimated to be long 33,000 soybeans, short 4,000 soymeal, long 63,000 soyoil, short 146,000 corn and short 73,000 wheat.

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2017-10-05T12:04:24+00:00 October 5th, 2017|