Dec 29 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 1 cent in the SRW, down 1 in HRW, and unchanged for Spring; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans up 1; Soymeal up $1.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 2 cents for SRW, up 4 in the HRW, and up 7 for HRS; Corn is down 2 cents; Soybeans down 5; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil down 15 points (March crushing margins are up roughly 2 cents around $1.00).

For the month, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 6 cents for SRW, down 5 for HRW, Spring down 3; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans down 40; Soymeal down $13.00, and; Soyoil down 125 points (March crushing margins down 2 cents at $1.00).

For the year, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 20 cents for SRW, up 10 for HRW, Spring up 80; Corn is unchanged; Soybeans down 50; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil down 190 points (March crushing margins up 30 cents at $1.00).

Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 19 yuan in Soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 31 in Soymeal, down 36 in Soyoil, and down 12 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 17 ringgit at 2,503, basis March, in light trade awaiting next week’s export data.

The South American weather forecast had no changes with light rains to fall in Argentina on Saturday, otherwise things look to be mainly dry over the next 5 days and, the 6 to 10 day period only has light amounts as well being seen as drier than average—–ample rains look to continue in Brazil over the 5 days and into the 6 to 10 day period.

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 300 lots (trade had estimates of 100 to 300); Soyoil 271 (100 to 500), and; Soybeans 20 contracts (100 to 500).

The player sheet had funds net sellers of 1,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net sold 4,000 Corn; sold 7,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 4,000 Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 148,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 210,000 Corn; net short 59,000 contracts of Soybeans; net long 42,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 3,000 lots of Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat Futures up roughly 1,200 contracts; HRW Wheat up 800; Corn up 5,500; Soybeans down 26,400 contracts; Soymeal down 8,900 lots, and; Soyoil down 2,100 lots.

Wheat sales are estimated at 250,000 to 550,000t; Corn 600,000 to 1.1 mt; Soybeans 800,000 to 1.5 mt; Soymeal 100,000 to 300,000t, and; Soyoil 5,000 to 25,000t.

U.S. ethanol production for the week ending December 22nd averaged 1.09 barrels per day, which was up 1.21% on the week, up 6.03% versus a year ago; stocks totaled 22.031 mil barrels (down 1.29% on the week, up 17.92% versus a year ago); Corn use totaled 113.5 mil bu versus 112.1 mil last week and versus the 104.4 mil needed to meet USDA projections.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2017-12-29T13:14:42+00:00 December 29th, 2017|