May 4 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are lower. SN is down 14 cents and near 10.38. CN is down 2 cents and near 4.06. WN is down 6 cents and near 5.31. KWN is down 8 cents and near 5.59. US stocks are lower. Crude is higher. US Dollar is higher. Metals are lower.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 34 cents for SRW, up 30 in the HRW, and up 19 for HRS; Corn is up 8; Soybeans down 18 cents; Soymeal up $0.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points.

China has offered to buy more U.S. goods and lower tariffs on some goods including cars as part of negotiations to resolve an escalating trade dispute, according to two sources with knowledge of the matter and a document reviewed by Reuters. China also demanded that U.S. terminate its Section 301 intellectual property probe and not implement the 25 percent tariffs proposed as part of that probe. China also told the U.S. side that it would actively consider information provided by U.S. firms on Beijing’s anti-dumping investigation on sorghum imported from the United States.

For the week ended April 26th, US All Wheat sales are running 16% behind a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 12% decline on the year. US Corn sales were running 2% behind a year ago with the USDA forecasting a 3% decline on the year. US Soybean sales were running 3% behind with the USDA forecasting a 5% decline on the year; Soymeal sales 11% ahead of a year ago with an 8% increase forecasted; and Soyoil sales running 4% behind a year ago with a 22% decrease forecasted.

Drought sapped yield potential for the Kansas wheat crop and likely will result in the smallest harvest in the top wheat growing state since 1989, scouts said on the final day of an annual crop tour. The Wheat Quality Council estimated average yields for hard red winter wheat at 37.0 bpa, below the five-year crop tour average of 41.0 bpa and the USDA 2017 actual Kansas yield of 48.0 bpa. The scouts’ ave est of 2018 Kansas wheat production was 243.3 mil bu, down sharply from USDA’s actual production last year of 333.6 million and the smallest since 213.6 million in 1989.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes; things will be mainly dry through the weekend and early next week; fairly soaking rains are seen the second half of next week.

The U.S. Southern Plains weather forecast has limited rainfall for the western half of Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas through the weekend and early next week; there looks to be a system the end of next week that could bring meaningful rainfall to both the west and the east.

Brazil’s second corn crop is likely to see little in the way of rains through the weekend and most of next week.

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2018-05-04T12:14:57+00:00 May 4th, 2018|