by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SU is down 2 cents and near 8.84. Word that China may want to talk rallied soybeans off the overnight low. CU is up 2 cents and near 3.68. WU is unchanged and near 5.61. Good US farmer selling 2019 wheat at yesterday high. Farmer may be pulling the trigger too early given recent low wheat prices. Some feel now wheat pieces could rally another 1.00. Funds were talking a US corn yield near 180. Talk that World stocks to use ratio of major exporters could drop to record low could trigger increase fund buying. US Dollar is higher.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 34 cents for SRW, up 39 in the HRW, and up 25 for HRS; Corn is up 5; Soybeans up 9 cents; Soymeal down $1.00; Soyoil down 40 points (December crushing margins are down roughly 11 cent at around $1.51, oil-share is unch at 30%).

The Chinese government’s top diplomat said on Friday that cooperation between China and the United States is the only right choice and China is willing to resolve differences on a principle of equal footing.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes as close to average rains and no prolonged heat looks to continue; a front looks to bring rainfall to most areas of the region the first half of next week. The 11 to 16 day forecast has mostly average to above average temps with near average precip for the Midwest.

China sold 856,885 tonnes of corn at auction of state reserves at an average price of 1,416 yuan ($206.16) per ton; the sale represents 21.64 percent of total corn available at the auction ($1 = 6.8684 Chinese yuan). China reported its first outbreak of the deadly African swine fever (ASF) on Friday, as authorities in Liaoning province in the country’s northeast culled almost 1,000 hogs and rushed to control the highly contagious disease.

Brazilian soybean farmers face a rise of about 20 percent in fertilizer and pesticide costs ahead of the 2018/19 crop cycle, which will be planted from around September; a rise in farm input costs will likely reduce margins for farmers in Brazil’s agricultural heartland; soybean margins in the state of Mato Grosso.

Scorching temperatures in France and northern Europe are raising concern about the final size of EU grain harvests. In its weekly crop report, FranceAgriMer estimated that 66 percent of grain maize crops were in good or excellent condition as of July 29, compared with 71 percent a week earlier and 79 percent by the same time last year.  Some 96 percent of maize crops were at the critical female flowering stage at the end of last week. The wheat harvest was virtually over by July 29, 10 days ahead of the five-year average, with 71 percent of the crops in good or excellent condition, up from 67 percent a year earlier.

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