by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Grains are mixed to lower. SX is down 3 cents and near 9.00. CZ is unchanged and near 3.82. WZ is unchanged and near 5.86. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Copper is higher.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 6 cents for SRW, up 6 in the HRW, and up 15 for HRS; Corn is down 2; Soybeans down 2 cents; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil up 10 points (December crushing margins are up roughly 7 cents at around $1.52, oil-share is unch at 30%).

Trade est US 2018 corn crop near 14,411 mil bu vs USDA July est of 14,230. 2018 US soybean crop is est near 4,407 vs USDA July 4,310. US 2018/19 corn carryout is est near 1,636 vs USDA 1,552, soybeans 638 vs 580 and wheat 961 vs 985. Trade est World 2018/19 corn end stocks near 152.6 mmt vs 152.0 in July, soybeans 99.3 vs 98.3 and wheat 256.4 vs 260.9.

July highs may be tough for soybeans to trade over unless there is a resolution to US and China trade issue. Todays USDA estimate of US crop, US carryout and World carryout could be key for corn prices. Some would like to buy a negative reaction. Trade may need to see bullish World wheat numbers before trading higher especially given fact funds are long wheat.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had models had no major changes with Midwest seeing rains for much of the region next week. Temps run average to above. The 11 to 16 day forecast has models showing close to average rains in the Midwest with temps average to a bit above.

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