Aug 28 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SX is down 1 cent and near 8.47. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.62. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.27. CRB Index is higher. US Dollar is lower.

US spring wheat is est to be 77 pct harvest vs 60 pct last week (61 pct 5-year ave). US corn is rated 68 pct good/ex vs 68 pct last week (62 pct last year). US soybeans are rated 66 pct good/ex vs 65 pct last week (61 pct last year).

Yesterday’s weekly export inspections had U.S. wheat exports running 35% behind a year ago with the USDA currently forecasting a 14% increase, corn unchanged (up 5%), and soybeans 3% behind (a 3% decline forecasted).

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has rains for the region the next 2-3 days favoring the north but moderate amounts elsewhere; more rains are seen for the north early in the weekend with another rain event for most of the region going towards the middle of next week. Temps still ranging from 70’s to 90’s.

The 11 to 16 day forecast continues to hold average temps for the Midwest and Plains; average to a bit below average rainfall is seen for the Midwest, below average rains for the Plains.

The United States and Mexico agreed on Monday to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), putting pressure on Canada to agree to the new terms on auto trade and other issues to remain part of the three-nation pact.

USDA today announced details of a $12 billion tariff relief package for agriculture that includes direct payments as well as commodity purchases. USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said the initial round of payments are limited to 50 percent of production and that the agency will later revisit whether to add payments on the remaining 50 percent of production. Program signup will start September 4.

Payment rates are as follows:

Wheat: 14 cents per bushel on 50 percent of 2018 production. Sorghum: 86 cents per bushel on 50 percent of 2018 production. Soybeans: $1.65 per bushel on 50 percent of 2018 production. Corn: 1 cent per bushel on 50 percent of 2018 production. Cotton: 6 cents per pound on 50 percent of 2018 production. Dairy: 12 cents per hundred weight on 50 percent of MPP production. Pork: $8 per head on Aug. 1 for 50 percent of herd

Total crop payments and combined pork and dairy payments are limited at $125,000 each.

In addition, USDA will purchase $1.2 billion in surplus commodities for food banks and will invest an additional $200 million in foreign market development.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2018-08-28T12:17:04+00:00 August 28th, 2018|