Oct 1 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grain are mixed. SX is unchanged and near 8.45. CZ is up 2 cents and near 3.58. WZ is unchanged and near 5.09. US stocks are sharply higher. There is a new trade agreement between US, Canada and Mexico.

Grain trade is still trying to adjust to the bearish USDA September stocks report. The USDA numbers suggest US 2017 corn and soybean crops may be bigger than expected and that June-Aug demand may have been smaller.

The US Midwest 10 day forecast suggest heavy rains that could cause local flooding especially in E KS, IA,  N IL and WI.

November soybean are in an 8.39-857 range. Demand bulls are hoping declining Brazil soybean supply, Argentina soymeal supply and fact both countries may need to imports soybean could help prices. Supply bears feel there is just too many soybean in the World and prospects of higher 2019 supply should push prices lower. Lack of new China demand for US soybean is also long term negative.

Corn and wheat bulls hope that declining World wheat supply and record demand for US corn will help prices near season lows. There needs to be some spark to attract new longs away from the higher trend in US stocks. Supply bears doubt there is much upside in either market if 2019 World supply returns to normal and US farmers switch soybean acres to more corn and wheat.

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2018-10-01T12:04:32+00:00 October 1st, 2018|