Nov 1 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. New month, same song. SF is down 2 cents and near 8.49. In deliveries, Soybeans totaled 813. CZ is up 1 cent and near 3.64. WZ is up 2 cents and near 5.02. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower.

For the month, Winter Wheat prices were down roughly 9 cents for SRW, down 18 for HRW, HRS Wheat down 3; Corn was up 7 cents; Soybeans down 7 cents; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil down 100 points.

U.S. soybean crushings in September likely totaled 5.131 million short tons, or 171.0 million bushels; estimates ranged from 170.2 million to 171.6 million bushels; it would be up from a 169.6-million-bushel crush in August; above the September 2017 crush of 145.4 million bushels.

Weekly US soybean export sales are est near 400-700 mt, corn 5000-800 mt and wheat 200-500 mt.

CF Industries forecasts strong demand for its products next year, thanks in part to a big boost to US corn plantings; the fertilizer company sees farmers planting 93M acres of corn in 2019, up from 89M this year, along with higher wheat plantings.

Reluctant farmers are making profits from Bunge’s grain-buying business a wildcard for the remainder of 2018, executives say; North American farmers are proving very stubborn holders of their record crop, while in Brazil, farmers have yet to make advance sales of the coming crop due to low futures prices and the stronger Brazilian real. China’s recent moves to wean its hogs off their heavy diet of soybean meal will likely diminish its imports of the feed ingredient next year–and reduce China’s need for US soybeans, according to the CEO of Bunge; our expectation for [soybean meal] imports into China next year will be a small reduction; given Brazil’s robust soybean supplies, China can probably supply themselves fully without having to return to the US, in case there’s no resolution to the trade concerns; Chinese officials recently have reduced the minimum level of soybean meal required for livestock feed.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has a rain system for the northwest Midwest over the weekend and into Monday. Things turn dry the middle of next week. Frequent rainfall continues for the southeast Midwest over the near term. Temps are seen a bit above average, turning cooler than average next week.

Brazil weather has rainfall amounts turning more average over the next 10 days with 75% coverage.

Argentine weather has light to moderate rainfall for most of La Pampa and Buenos Aires with things dry in the rest of the region through the weekend. Hit and miss rains are seen for next week with coverage downsized to around 45%.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2018-11-01T12:13:12+00:00 November 1st, 2018|