July 2 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed.  SX is up 3 cents and near 9.11. CZ is up 1 cent and near 4.24. WZ is down 2 cents and near 5.22. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. US stocks are lower.

U.S. 2019 Corn was rated 56% good to excellent (trade estimate was 57%) versus 56% last week, 76% a year ago.

U.S. Soybeans planted totaled 92% (trade estimate was 93%) versus 85% a week ago, 100% last year, and 99% average. Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 56%) versus 54% a week ago, 71% a year ago.

U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 30% (trade estimate was 30%) versus 15% last week, 50% a year ago, 48% average. The U.S. Winter Wheat crop was rated 63% good to excellent (trade estimate was 61%) versus 61% a week ago and 37% a year ago.

Spring Wheat was rated 75% good to excellent (trade estimate was 75%) versus 75% last week, 77% a year ago;

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 28% ahead of a year ago (6% ahead a week ago) with the USDA currently forecasting a 5% decline on the year, Corn 9% behind (6% behind a week ago) with the USDA down 10% for the season and Soybeans 25% behind (26% behind last week) with the USDA having a 20% decline forecasted on the year.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has no major changes as close to average precip and average to slightly below average temps are seen across the region.

The Southern U.S. Plains had no major changes as hit and miss rainfall mostly in the east will be seen over the next 10 days. Rainfall will increase over the weekend and early next week. The Northern U.S. Plains had no major changes as they look to have close to average precip over the next 10 days.

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states will see a seasonable pattern of isolated to scattered showers each day during the next two weeks. Most of the Delta and the Southeast have enough soil moisture to support the needs of crops in areas where drying takes place.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook has ridging across the western U.S. with a weak Northwest flow aloft across the Midwest. This brings average to a bit below average precip and average temps to the Midwest.

On Friday, funds were net sellers of 6,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; sold 20,000 Corn; sold 10,000 contracts of Soybeans; net sold 6,000 Soymeal, and; sold 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 16,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 108,000 Corn; net short 50,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 9,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 40,000 Soyoil.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-07-02T13:11:58+00:00 July 2nd, 2019|