by Steve Freed,
CBOT grain trade was closed overnight. Early calls are mixed. Could be some follow through buying from Wednesday. Wednesday trade was supported by talk China may buy US corn, soybean and pork as a goodwill gesture before US and China trade talks resume. Midwest rains over the Holiday and slowdown in US export activity could offer resistance. There were also report that China insists that tariffs be removed as part of a new deal. SX is near 9.08. CZ is near 4.41. WZ is near 5.25. US Dollar is higher.
For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 13 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 19 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 13 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 10 cents; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $7.00, and; Soyoil down 15 points (crushing margins are down 5 cents at $0.99, oil-share is up 1% at 31%).
Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated near 25-550 mt, corn 200-700 mt, soybeans 600-1.200
The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has the 6 to 10 day period still looking at average to a bit below average precip and average to below average temps.
The Southern U.S. Plains continues with some hit and miss rains but be fairly quiet; limited rains are seen through next week. The Northern U.S. Plains will see still see close to average rainfall through the next 10 days.
The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states will see a seasonable pattern of isolated to scattered showers each day during the next two weeks.
The 11 to 16 Day Outlook still has not changed as it sees ridging in the west with the Midwest seeing average to a bit below average precip and average temps.
The northern Chinese province of Hebei issued an extreme heat ‘red alert’ on Thursday, with temperatures set to soar beyond 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) in its major cities and putting the area’s corn crop at risk, the local government said; China’s weather bureau on Tuesday said that climate change could cause more extreme weather events, with rainfall breaking records in some regions and as many as 40 weather stations this year already registering their hottest temperatures ever.
The condition of French cereal crops declined in the week to July 1, farm office France AgriMer said, suggesting a negative impact from a record-breaking heatwave. France AgriMer estimated that 75% of soft wheat was in good or excellent. Down from 80% a week earlier although still above a year-earlier score of 73%
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