July 23 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are higher.  SX is up 2 cents and near 9.07. CZ is up 2 cents and near 4.29. WZ is up 4 cents and near 5.03.  Next key USDA report is August 12. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher.

There were reports that the Head of the USDA RMA said that total US prevent plant acres enrollment is near 15-20 million acres. Some feel this could include 6-8 million corn.

U.S. Corn silking was 35% versus 17% a week ago, 78% last year, and 66% average. Corn was rated 57% good to excellent (trade estimate was 58%) versus 58% last week, and 72% a year ago.

U.S. Soybeans blooming were 40% versus 22% a week ago, 76% a year ago, and 66% average. Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 54%) versus 54% a week ago, and 70% a year ago.

U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 69% (trade estimate was 73%) versus 57% last week, 79% a year ago, 79% average.

Spring Wheat was rated 76% good to excellent (trade estimate was 76%) versus 76% last week, and 79% average.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has things mainly dry across the majority of the region over the next 5 days. The 6 to 10 day has some light rains to fall across the northeast half to 2/3rds of the region on Monday with things drying back out Tuesday into Wednesday.

The U.S. Delta and Southeastern states says the two-week outlook has not changed much since late last week and both regions are still expected to see a seasonable pattern of isolated to scattered showers most days during the period.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest is back to a northwest flow bringing below average rainfall and average temps to the region.

Market feels China doesn’t need U.S. soybeans at the moment as shipments from South America have been good and the African swine fever has hurt domestic demand. China might buy some new crop soybeans to generate headlines and get trade negotiations between the U.S. and China going again.

China’s pork imports in June surged from the previous year, customs data showed on Tuesday, as the world’s top consumer of the meat stocked up on supplies after African swine fever has decimated domestic pig herds. China brought in 160,467 tons of pork in June, up 62.8% from the same month last year; this was down 14% from 187,459 tons imported in May. China’s pork imports for the first six months of the year came in at 818,703 tons, up 26.3% from a year earlier.

China’s wholesale pork prices rose rapidly in the first-half of March; China’s average wholesale pork prices rose 36.4% from a year earlier to 23.76 yuan ($3.45) per kg as of July 19. Retail pork prices have also increased in recent weeks but at a slower pace than whole sale prices, with prices up 34.6% from a year earlier at 27.29 yuan per kg as of July 10.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 28% ahead of a year ago (31% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 2% increase on the year, Corn 12% behind a year ago (11% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans 24% behind a year ago (24% last week) with the USDA having a 20% decline forecasted on the year.

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2019-07-23T13:08:05+00:00 July 23rd, 2019|