Aug 12 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Grains are lower. SX is down 4 cents and near 8.87. CZ is down 3 cents and near 4.14. WZ is down 3 cents and near 4.97. Unrest in Hong Kong and chances for central US Midwest showers may be offering resistance to prices.

China’s agriculture ministry said it has revised down its estimate for 2018/19 soybean imports to 83.5 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from last month’s estimate, due to lower-than-expected shipments in July. The ministry also upgraded its estimate for 2018/19 corn imports to 4 million tonnes, an increase of 700,000 tonnes from the previous month. The revised estimate for corn imports was mainly due to a significant reduction in U.S. sorghum imports.

Brazil is expected to export 72 million tons of soy this year, compared to 68.1 million tons in the previous forecast, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) said. The new forecast took into account the additional Chinese demand for Brazilian soy since China stopped buying from U.S. farmers due to the ongoing trade war.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has granted 31 small refinery biofuel waivers for 2018 on Friday, infuriating the ethanol and corn producers who blamed the Trump administration for bailing out the oil industry when U.S. farmers were suffering due to trade tariffs and low prices

USDA could almost say anything today concerning US 2019 corn and soybean acres, yield and carryout.

Range for corn planted acres is 83.5-89.8 vs USDA July est of 91.7. Range for yield is 161.0-167.2 vs USDA 166.0. Range for US 2019/20 carryout is 1,281-1,900 vs USDA 2,010.

Range for soybean planted acres is 78.0-83.5 vs USDA July est of 80.0. Range for yield is 46.0-49.0 vs USDA 48.5. Range for US 2019/20 carryout is 607-950 vs USDA 795.

Wheat prices will continue to follow corn. World wheat stocks are adequate for demand. Range of guesses for US 2019/20 wheat carryout is 918-1,072 versus USDA 1,000.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast is a bit wetter than what the weekend model presented now looking at close to average rains to fall across the region over the next 10 days.  The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest now has temps running average to slightly below and precip running average to a bit below.


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2019-08-12T12:32:50+00:00 August 12th, 2019|