Aug 13 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. USDA August report was bearish corn. CZ is down 10 cents and near 3.82. USDA report was not as bearish soybeans. SX is up 6 cents and near 8.85. USDA report was neutral wheat but World supplies are still adequate for demand. WZ is down 1 cent and near 4.74. US Dollar is unchanged. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.

For the first time USDA NASS did not use objective yield survey data on August yield projection. This was replaced by satellite imagery analysis. USDA will take objective field yield data in September. USDA ECB soybean yield was still 1.2 bpa above trend. This is the 6th straight year ECB yield has been above trend. This has not appended since 1968-1973. Some feel give the US 2019/20 corn demand outlook, a final corn yield of 155 or carryout below 1,400 is need for a bull price rally.

USDA est US 2019 corn planted acres at 90.0 vs 88.0 expected. Yield was 169.5 vs 164.9 expected. US 2019/20 carryout is 2,181 vs 1,620 expected.

USDA est US 2019 soybean planted acres at 76.7 vs 81.0 expected. Yield was 48.5 vs 47.6 expected. US 2019/20 carryout is 755 vs 821 expected 1,070 this year.

Wheat prices will continue to follow corn. World wheat stocks are adequate for demand. US 2019/20 wheat carryout is 1,014 versus 999 expected.

Farmers participating in U.S. crop subsidy programs reported “prevented plantings” for Aug. 1 of 11.211 million acres of corn, 4.351 million acres of soybeans and 2.209 million acres of wheat, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said. Producers enrolled in subsidy programs for Aug. 1 reported planted acreage, including failed acres, at 85.871 million acres of corn, 74.005 million acres of soybeans and 46.302 million acres of wheat.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast models were again a bit wetter, especially for the far south with close to average rains falling over the region the next 10 days. Temps will be going from average to below average over the near term, to above average over the weekend, then back to cooling back off the first half of next week.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest has the models differing again. The GFS has above average temps and below average precip. The European below average temps and average to below average precip.

U.S. Corn denting was 7% versus N/A% a week ago, 24% last year, and 16% average. Corn was rated 57% good to excellent (trade estimate was 56%) versus 57% last week, and 70% a year ago.

Soybeans setting pods was 54% versus 37% a week ago, 83% last year, and 76% average. Soybeans were rated 54% good to excellent (trade estimate was 53%) versus 54% a week ago, and 66% a year.

U.S. Winter Wheat harvested was 89% (trade estimate was 90%) versus 82% last week, 93% a year ago, 96% average.

U.S. Spring Wheat harvested was 8% (trade estimate was 11%) versus 2% last week, 32% a year ago, 30% average. Spring Wheat was rated 69% good to excellent (trade estimate was 72%) versus 73% last week, and 75% average.

Yesterday’s U.S. weekly export inspections had Wheat exports running 28% ahead of a year ago (25% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 4% increase on the year, Corn 16% behind a year ago (15% last week) with the USDA down 14% for the season and Soybeans 22% behind a year ago (22% last week) with the USDA having a 20% decline forecasted on the year.

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2019-08-13T12:16:15+00:00 August 13th, 2019|