Aug 14 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed to higher. Corn and wheat are trying to correct from an oversold situation. CZ is up 4 cents and near 3.80. WZ is up 7 cents and near 4.83. SX is down 1 cent and near 8.87. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US stocks are lower.

China’s soymeal futures fell 1.7% on Wednesday after Washington delayed tariffs on some Chinese imports; U.S. President Donald Trump made hopeful comments on Tuesday that China might change its stance and buy large volumes of U.S. agricultural products.

The political situation in Argentina is going to have a major impact on the soybean situation there. How farmers react to political events remains uncertain but it seems they will probably hold back soybeans until after the country’s election in October because its possible that the Argentine peso will continue to fall. Either way it seems like the events in Argentina will slow down farmer selling for at least the next 3 or 4 months which is a time when China will be needing Argentine soybeans.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast models changed with rains favoring the northern two-thirds of the region with lesser amounts in the south over the short term. The 6 to 10 day forecast has models split on where rain will fall and how much. The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest continues with models differing. The GFS has average temps and slightly below average preci. The European below average temps and above average precip.

There were changes in registrations (Soybeans down 326, Soyoil down 194)—Registrations total ZERO contracts for SRW Wheat; ZERO Oats; Corn 1,251; Soybeans 901; Soyoil 1,910 lots; Soymeal 820; Rice 1,036; HRW Wheat 5, and; HRS Wheat 1,176 contracts.


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2019-08-14T12:41:57+00:00 August 14th, 2019|