Aug 16 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are higher. CZ is up 3 cents and near 3.74. WZ is up 1 cent and near 4.76. SX is up 5 cents and near 8.75. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 25 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 28 in the Hard Red Winter, and down 15 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 42 cents; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $5.00, and; Soyoil down 30 points (crushing margins are up 1 cent at $1.06, oil-share is unchanged at 33%).

POTUS said on Thursday he believes China wants to make a trade deal and the trade war with Beijing will be fairly short. “I think we’re having very good discussions with China. They very much want to make a deal,” Trump told reporters. “I think the longer it goes the stronger we get,” Trump said of the trade war. “I have a feeling it’s going to go fairly short,” he said.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast hasn’t changed much for the near term with rains favoring the northern two-thirds of the region versus the southern areas.

The 11 to 16 Day Outlook for the Midwest had the models flip with the GFS having below average temps and average precip while, the European is average temps and slightly below average precip.

Some estimate that 66 pct of the US 2019 corn crop will be mature by Sep 29 vs 71 average. Farthest behind will be OH at 35 pct, WI 40 and MI 50.

For the week ended August 8th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 18% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 27% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 11% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline on the year. U.S. Soybean sales are running 17% behind a year ago, shipments 20% behind with the USDA forecasting a 20% decline on the year

NOPA July soy crush tops most estimates, jumps to 168.093 million bushels and surged from a 21-month low in June to the sixth-highest for any month on record

China this week put in a large order of Brazilian soybeans as it increasingly turns to the South American nation to fill a supply gap after halting purchases from the U.S., according to people familiar with the situation; Chinese companies have already bought between 25 to 30 cargoes of soy from Brazil so far this week, which is equivalent to about 1.5 million to 2 million tons; buyers are looking for more Brazilian supply and still haven’t bought enough to cover their needs through October

Top soybean buyer China can do without supplies from the United States in the fourth quarter and can rely on imports from South America instead, said an analyst with a government-backed think-tank; the comments by Zhang Liwei, a senior analyst at the China National Grains and Oils Information Center, come after China’s Commerce Ministry said earlier this month that Chinese companies had stopped buying U.S. farm products

China made its biggest purchases of U.S. pork in seven weeks last week as Beijing said Chinese companies suspended purchases of American agricultural products, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data issued; the world’s largest pork consumer bought 10,211 tons of U.S. pork between Aug. 2-8 for shipment in 2019 as a highly contagious swine disease continued to ravage the Chinese hog herd

China’s pig herd shrank by 32.2% in July from the same month a year ago, its agriculture ministry said as African swine fever continues to spread through the country; the ministry also said the number of sows declined by 31.9% in July, a year after the nation reported its first outbreak of the disease

Chinese state-owned construction giant CCCC is preparing a bid to dredge Argentina’s Parana River, the country’s main cargo superhighway that takes soy and corn from the Pampas farm belt to the shipping lanes of the south Atlantic and the world; representatives of China Communications Construction Co Ltd and its Shanghai Dredging unit have met with Argentine government and local port officials to sound out the dredging concession.

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2019-08-16T13:11:22+00:00 August 16th, 2019|