Sept 11 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are down roughly 2 cents in the SRW Wheat, down 2 in HRW, and unchanged for HRS; Corn is down 1 cent; Soybeans down 2; Soymeal down $1.00, and; Soyoil unchanged.

Chinese Ag futures (January) settled down 18 yuan in Soybeans, down 1 in Corn, down 6 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and up 4 in Palm Oil. The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 16 ringgit at 2,207 (basis November).

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast has rains for the region over the next 48 hours then, a mainly dry and warm period for next week; a front then looks to move in by Friday of next week—-Temps are still seen running average to above average over the next 4 days warming even further to above average in much of the region for all of next week.

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook is still fairly dry and warm across the Plains and Midwest early in the period with the models now coming together for the rest of the period—the European model has now sided with the GFS in calling for well below average temps with chances for freeze in the Dakotas and portions of Minnesota and northwest Iowa.

Brazil concerns about limited rainfall in center west and center south crop areas will slowly grow as the next two weeks pass and little rain of significance occurs; rain in far southern Brazil will be good.

Argentina rainfall is still needed throughout western Argentina where soil moisture is too low when consistently warm temperatures begin to occur; the region needs moisture.

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 96 lots; Soyoil 60; Rice 63; Corn 261; HRW Wheat 3; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 226, SRW Wheat 23, and; HRS Wheat ZERO.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 15,000 Corn; bought 7,000 soybeans; net bought 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 146,000 Corn; net short 75,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 42,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 19,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 3,000 contracts; HRW Wheat up 2,800; Corn up 16,000; Soybeans up 2,400 contracts; Soymeal down 740 lots, and; Soyoil up 5,300.

China is expected to buy more agricultural products in hope for a better trade deal with the United States, South China Morning Post reported—-China has announced some U.S. industrial chemicals will be exempt from tariff hikes imposed in a trade war with Washington but maintained penalties on soybeans, pork and other farm goods.

White House officials have arranged to meet representatives of biofuel companies on Wednesday to discuss the administration’s plan to increase biofuel blending mandates, in a bid to secure industry support.

Dry weather in Brazilian states like ParanĂ¡ and Mato Grosso will slow the pace of soybean planting early in the season, unlike in the last cycle when farmers accelerated sowing driven by good rainfall

China will allow the import of soymeal livestock feed from Argentina for the first time under a bilateral deal announced by Buenos Aires.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-09-11T13:03:57+00:00 September 11th, 2019|