Sept 13 Morning Ag Commentary

by Michael Niemiec,

Wheat prices overnight are up roughly 5 cents in the SRW Wheat, up 5 in HRW, and up 1 for HRS; Corn is up 1 cent; Soybeans up 3; Soymeal up $0.50, and; Soyoil up 5 points.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are up roughly 26 cents for Soft Red Winter, up 15 in the Hard Red Winter, and up 13 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is up 13 cents; Soybeans up 41; Soymeal up $9.00, and; Soyoil up 55 points (crushing margins are down 15 cents at $0.87, oil-share is unchanged at 32%).

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast had no major changes as it looks to be mainly dry and warm for the weekend and most of next week until a front moves in for the following weekend—temps will be running average to above average across the region the next 2 days before warming up to above average for all of next week.

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook had no major changes as the models are still in agreement with slightly below average temps and precip across the Midwest; and still gone (for now) are the ideas of a stronger weather flow that would have brought frost/freezes across northern sections of the Midwest.

Brazil will see little rain of significance through the next ten days to two weeks outside of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. Argentina sees a restricted rainfall pattern in place during the next ten days to two weeks and greater rain is needed in many areas to improve conditions. Australia has restricted precipitation and drying occurring coming week; interior south-central into east-central Australia, the drought is not likely to change.

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 48 lots; Soyoil 38; Rice 3; Corn 123; HRW Wheat 5; Oats ZERO; Soybeans 177, SRW Wheat 55, and; HRS Wheat 1.

The player sheet had funds net buyers of 4,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 19,000 Corn; bought 18,000 soybeans; net bought 5,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 5,000 lots of Soyoil.

We estimate Managed Money net short 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net short 133,000 Corn; net short 62,000 contracts of Soybeans; net short 41,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net short 10,000 Soyoil.

Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures down roughly 1,700 contracts; HRW Wheat up 1,300; Corn up 5,100; Soybeans up 7,200 contracts; Soymeal up 430 lots, and; Soyoil down 1,000.

China will lift punitive tariffs imposed on U.S. soybeans and pork in a trade war with Washington, a state news agency said Friday, in a possible goodwill gesture ahead of negotiations; the Xinhua News Agency, citing unidentified official sources, said soybeans, pork and some other farm goods will be exempt from tariff hikes; it gave no indication whether or when purchases might resume.

For the week ended September 5th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 23% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 28% with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year

—By class, HRW wheat sales are up 55%, shipments 112% ahead with a USDA forecast of a 22% increase

—SRW sales 25% ahead, shipments 24% ahead with a 26% decline seen

—HRS sales 15% ahead, shipments 1% ahead with unchanged seen on the year

U.S. Corn sales are running 53% behind a year ago, shipments 43% behind with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year

U.S. Soybean sales are running 42% behind a year ago, shipments 18% behind with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year

—Soymeal sales 4% behind on the year, shipments 5% behind with a 3% decline forecasted

—Soyoil sales 15% behind a year ago, shipments 21% behind with a 16% decline forecasted

U.S. President Donald Trump said the administration has made progress on a biofuel reform package after he met with U.S. senators from key farm states on Thursday as part of an ongoing effort to boost ethanol demand and help hard-hit corn farmers.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.


2019-09-13T12:56:59+00:00 September 13th, 2019|