Oct 10 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Grains are mixed to marginally higher. CZ is unchanged and near 3.94. WZ is up 3 cents and near 5.03. SX is up 2 cents and near 9.25. US Dollar is lower. US stocks are lower.

The soybean market is finding support after the Financial Times reported that the team of China’s lead trade negotiator had offered to boost annual purchases of soybeans to 30 million tonnes from 20 million at present, as the two countries seek to resolve their trade dispute. U.S.-China trade talks and Chinese buying of U.S. beans are in focus although expectations for the talks are pretty low.

Wheat edged higher, while corn lost ground for a second straight session in positioning ahead of a USDA report on global supplies and demand later in the day.

The market is monitoring a winter storm brewing in the northern U.S. Plains and Rocky Mountains that is expected to bring freezing temperatures late this week into the Dakotas, Nebraska and portions of Minnesota and Iowa. The storm could potentially damage corn and soybean crops.

Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, soyoil and wheat futures contracts on Wednesday and net buyers of soybeans and soymeal, traders said.

Trade est US corn crop near 13,684 mil bu vs USDA Sep 13,799. US 2019/20 corn carryout is est near 1,784 vs 2,190 and World end stocks 298.2 mmt vs 306.2 in Sep.

Trade est US soybean crop near 3,583 mil bu vs USDA Sep 3,633. US 2019/20 soybean carryout is est near 521 vs 640 and World end stocks 96.4 mmt vs 99.1 in Sep.

Trade est US 2019/20 wheat carryout is est near 1,015 mil bu vs 1.014 and World end stocks 285.1 mmt vs 286.5 in Sep.

Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 300-600 mt vs 328 last week, corn 500-800 mt vs 562 last week and soybeans 1,300-1,800 mt vs 2,076 last week.

The U.S. Midwest weather forecast, with the blizzard-like conditions moving through the Northern Plains, has rains moving west to east through Saturday. Drier weather builds back into next week with models differing with rainfall by the end of next week. Temps are seen dropping in the range of 28-34 degrees in sections of the northern Midwest over the weekend and the region as a whole sees below average temps for the next week.

The U.S. 11 to 16 Day Outlook still indicates an active pattern of above average precip and average temps for the Plains and Midwest.

The South American weather forecast has rains across most of the Argentine growing regions with the southern areas dry. Rainfall is also seen for some southern and northern areas of Brazil. The 6 to 10 day period has the same pattern as the near term.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2019-10-10T12:02:09+00:00 October 10th, 2019|