Nov 29 Morning Ag Commentary

Grain calls are slightly lower. CBOT was closed overnight. US stocks are lower.

SF is near 8.82. CH is near 3.73. WH is near 5.26. US stocks are lower. Could see some weakens today after POTUS signed legislation supporting Hong Kong protestors. Russia 2020 winter wheat crop is rated best in 5 years. Wheat is called 1-2 lower, corn 1 lower and soybean 1-3 lower. US Midwest weather could be wet this week with winter storm in north plains. Argentina drier than normal forecast could offer support next week. December grain deliveries were less than expected.

For the week so far wheat prices are up 8 in SRW, up 4 1/4 in HRW, up 1 3/4 in HRS; Corn is down 5 1/4; Soybeans down 15; Soymeal down $0.50; Soyoil down 0.56. (January crushing margins are down 2 cents around $1.05 1/4, oil-share is up 0.43% at 33.99%).

For the month to date wheat prices are up 12 in SRW, up 5 1/4 in HRW, down 32 in HRS; Corn is down 25 1/2; Soybeans down 50 1/4; Soymeal down $1.07; Soyoil down 0.47. (January crushing margins were up 21 3/4 cents around $1.05 1/4, oil-share down 0.03% at 33.99%).

Malaysian palm oil prices overnight were up 21 ringgit (+0.77%) at 2744, advancing for a third day, with futures closing very near to a two-year high, on optimism that the tropical oil has potential for further gains as production weakens and demand strengthens.

The western U.S. Midwest weather forecast calls for light to moderate rain with locally heavier on Friday. Some light mixed precipitation on Saturday. Dry conditions or just a little light snow Sunday.

Eastern Midwest dry weather Friday and rain Saturday with some moderate to heavy totals expected. Light snow Sunday.

Brazil’s Rio Grande do Sul and Parana forecasts call dry weather Friday, dry conditions or just a few light showers Saturday-Sunday. Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias are forecasted to see daily episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the next 7 days. Rainfall totals during the next 3 days will be moderate to heavy.

Argentina Cordoba, Santa Fe, North Buenos Aires are forecasts call for dry conditions or just a few light showers Friday-Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday and variable Saturday-Sunday.

Rabobank estimates on Brazil’s soy crop production to climb 5% to 124m from 118m tons in the previous season. Exports seen at 76.5m tons to 78m tons in 2019-20, depending on terms of the phase 1 trade war deal. 2019-20 shipments to China seen at 54m-59m tons, down from 60m tons in 2018-19

Rabobank estimates on Brazil’s corn crop domestic demand is expected to grow 6% in Brazil in 2020, driven by increasing corn-ethanol production and buying from the meat industry. That would likely reduce exports, potentially opening room for the United States and other players. Corn used for ethanol production is expected to be 2.5 million tonnes more corn in 2020 reaching 68 million tonnes. Brazilian corn exports fall to around 30 million tonnes next year from a record near 40 million in 2019. Corn planted area for the second corn crop increase to grow to 13.4 million hectares (33.1 million acres) in 2020 versus 12.5 million hectares in 2019. Total area (first and second crops) are seen growing 5% in the 2019-20 Brazilian grain season, to 18.4 million hectares, with total production again topping 100 million tonnes as it did in the previous season.

Argentina 2019-20 soy planting is 39% complete. Planted area unchanged at 17.7m hectares. 2019-20 corn area unchanged at 6.3m hectares and planting is 46.2% complete. 2019-20 wheat production est. unchanged at 18.5m tons and harvest 31.3% complete.

In deliveries, Soymeal totaled 319 lots; Soyoil 226; HRW Wheat 11 contracts.

USDA monthly oilseed crushings report is expected to show that a record 5.582 million short tons, or 186.1 million bushels, of soybeans were processed in October. Estimates ranged from 184.9 million to 187.5 million, with a median of 186.0 million. U.S. soyoil stocks are estimated to drop slightly to 1.763 billion lbs, ranged from 1.726 to 1.829 billion lbs, with a median of 1.750 billion.

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2019-11-29T13:06:58+00:00 November 29th, 2019|