Jan 8 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed

Grains are mixed. SH is unchanged and near 9.44. CH is down 1 cent and near 3.83. WH is up 1 cent and near 5.51. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.

Corn futures have been struggling to rally due to slow US export pace and talk of higher 2020 World corn supplies. US farmers are expected to plant a record amount of corn acres in 2020. Still a temporary low could be established early this week in front of the USDA Jan report. Supply bulls and US farmers hope that USDA drops US 2019 crop enough to push prices higher. Ave trade guess for US 2019 crop is 13,513 mil bu vs USDA Nov guess of 13,661.

Soybeans could find support before US and China deal signing. Market was overbought and due for a correction. After the deal is signed China could begin to buy US soybeans. Potential for record South America soybean crops and drop in China demand due to ASF could eventually weigh in 2020 prices. Ave trade guess for US Dec 1 soybean stocks is 3,186 mil bu vs 3,746 last year.

Wheat prices rallied in December due to tightening US, EU and Ukraine supplies. Talk of record 2020 supplies could limit any further increase in prices. Ave trade guess for US 2020 winter wheat planted acres is 30.66 million acres vs 31.16 last year.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil doesn’t have much change with moderate rainfall through most of the region over the next 6 to 10 day period. The Argentine weather forecast has rains in the north over the next few days, turning dry for the weekend, and then in the 10 period rains to return in most areas with a strong front.

Cargill Inc. said its quarterly profits surged as a deadly hog malady boosted meat prices and demand; the meat and grain supplier is selling more chicken in China, where African swine fever has led to the deaths of tens of millions of hogs in the world’s top pork-consuming country; the drop in pork supplies is boosting global prices for other meat, including beef sold by Cargill, and driving demand for animal feed as livestock producers around the world expand to close the meat gap.

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2020-01-08T14:31:21+00:00 January 8th, 2020|