Jan 10 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Data should put to rest the US 2019 row crop production and give us some clarity for the future. Fact USDA WASDE is not expected to increase US exports due to a Phase 1 trade deal with US and China could limit the upside in prices. Grains are mixed to higher. SH is unchanged and near 9.44. CH is up 1 cent and near 3.84. WH is up 1 cent and near 5.64. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Gold is lower.

USDA delayed weekly export sales report until today due to a winter storm in Washington. Weekly US wheat sales are est near 200-550 mt, corn 350-700 mt and soybeans 400-800 mt.

Some still feel that grains and soybean rallies in Q1 should be sold. Talk of higher World 2020 supplies and uncertainty when and what China will buy of US Ag goods once a trade deal with the US is signed could weigh on prices. SH is near 9.43. Recent high was near 9.70. Initial support is near 9.30. CH has been in a range of 3.70-3.90 since October. Long term range has been 3.70-4.10. WH is near season highs. Resistance is 5.80. Support 5.30-5.40.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil doesn’t have much change with moderate rainfall through most of the region over the next 6 to 10 day period. The Argentine weather forecast has rains in the north over the next few days, turning dry for the weekend, and then in the 10 period rains to return in most areas with a strong front. Trade will be watching cold temps forecast for next week US Midwest and plains and impact on the winter wheat crop. One map hints cold temps could move into US NE. This could increase energy demand.

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2020-01-10T15:01:13+00:00 January 10th, 2020|