Jan 16 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Day 1 post Phase 1 US and China trade deal. Grains are lower. SH is down 3 cents and near 9.25. CH is down

5 cents and near 3.82. WH is down 8 cents and near 5.64.  US stocks are higher.  US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US House sent articles of impeachment to the Senate.

Grain futures are lower. There is some skepticism on how much US Ag goods China will buy and when. Some feel that except for soybean, pork and dairy products China may wait until after US 2020 election and even fall harvest to begin to buy US Ag goods. March soybeans traded overnight below key support. Overnight, March corn also trade below support. March Chicago wheat is also lower and may be trying to correct and overbought position.

China’s pledge to buy U.S. farm goods based on “market conditions” during the Phase 1 trade deal signing ceremony on Wednesday added to doubts among farmers and commodity traders over Beijing’s lingering tariffs on U.S. exports. The agreement, meant to reduce tensions after nearly two years of a tit-for-tat tariff war, included a pledge by China to purchase at least an additional $12.5 billion worth of agricultural goods in 2020 and at least $19.5 billion over the 2017 level of $24 billion in 2021.

Weekly US wheat export sales are est near 200-500 mt, corn 300-70 mt and soybeans 400-800 mt

Feb US soybean export prices is near $363 vs Brazil $360. Feb US soymeal prices is near $336 vs Argentina $336 and Brazil $323. Feb US corn price is near $178, Argentina $187 and Ukraine $181. US Feb HRW wheat price is near $232 vs EU $225 and Russia $225-229.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil has not changed much with rains seen falling through much of the region over the next 6 to 10 day period. The Argentine weather forecast turns dry through the upcoming weekend with rains returning by midweek next week.

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2020-01-16T13:59:32+00:00 January 16th, 2020|