Feb 11 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day.  Grains are lower. Palm Oil sharply lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower.

The number of cases of the virus increased to 42,638 and 1,016 deaths. US stock market and energy prices are higher on feelings the spread of the virus will soon be under control.

CONAB est Brazil corn crop near 100.4 mmt versus 98.7 previous and 100.0 last year. They estimated the soybean crop near 123.2 mmt versus 122.2 previous and 115.0 last year.

Argentina’s top exporter of processed soy, Vicentin, has asked a judge to begin negotiations for debt restructuring as the firm struggles to cope with a widening economic crisis in the South American nation.

Russia exported 22.7 million tons of wheat from July 1, 2019 to January 30, 2020, or 15.6% less than the previous year. A total of 26.6 million tons of grain was exported for this period, which was 17.5% less than the previous year.

USDA report is today. Most doubt USDA will give the market any bullish news. Average trade guess for US 2019/20 corn carryout is near 1,864 mil bu vs 1,892 previous and 2,221 last year. Soybeans are est near 443 vs 475 previous and 909 last year. Wheat is est near 954 vs 965 previous and 1,080 last year.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil has rains continuing over the next 6 to 10 days for most of the growing regions. The Argentine weather forecast is dry for most of the rest of the week but. Rains return to most areas the beginning of next week, which is an increase from previous forecasts.

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2020-02-11T14:08:29+00:00 February 11th, 2020|