Feb 12 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Abe Lincoln’s birthday. A House divided against itself cannot stand. Grains are mixed. SH is unchanged and near 8.84. CH is unchanged and near 3.78. WH is unchanged and near 5.41. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is marginally higher. Crude is higher.  

The number of cases of the virus increased to 44,653 and 2,015 deaths. US stock market and energy prices are higher on feelings the spread of the virus will soon be under control. China is expected to more broadly open its markets to US Ag goods after Feb 15, after the 30 day implementation period ends.

Overnight grain and soybean futures are quietly mixed. USDA WOB suggested China soybean imports will increase, Brazil soybean crop will also increase. USDA also suggested US soybean and wheat exports will go up but corn will drop. USDA first attempt to plug in impact Phase 1 deal was a little disappointing.

USDA est US 2019/20 corn carryout is near 1,892 mil bu. Private est range from 1,717 to 2.065. Key is final domestic demand. Soybean carryout was est near 425. Private est range from 427-470. Key is final exports. US Wheat carryout est near 940. Private est range from 899-975. Key is final exports.

Private est of US 2020/21 corn carryout range from 2,235-3,220 vs USDA 2,717. Key is crop size and export demand. Private est of US 2020/21 soybean carryout range from 318-520 vs USDA 483. Key is export demand. Private est of US 2020/21 wheat carryout range from 670-687 vs USDA 857. Key is export demand.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil has rains continuing over the next 6 to 10 days for most of the growing regions with things turning drier early next week. The Argentine weather forecast is going to be mostly drier for the remainder of the week with rains returning the beginning of next week.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2020-02-12T14:26:43+00:00 February 12th, 2020|