Feb 14 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed

Happy Valentine’s Day. Chicago wind chill -19. Baby it is cold outside. SH is up 2 cents and near 8.98. CH is up 1 cent and near 3.80. WH is up 3 cents and near 5.47. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices are down roughly 9 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 4 for the Hard Red Winter, and down 9 for Hard Red Spring; Corn is down 4 cents; Soybeans up 10; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points; Crushing margins are down 7 cents at $0.95; oil-share is unchanged at 34%.

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China reached 1,380 as of the end of Thursday. Across mainland China, the number of confirmed infections on Thursday, bringing the total number to 63,851. China has pumped billions of dollars into its financial system, raised expectations of an interest-rate cut and pledged to cut red tape in a bevy of emergency responses to the economic hit of its coronavirus outbreak. But there is nothing typical about China’s coronavirus challenge, which economists say defies traditional prescriptions for dealing with an economic shock. None of the measures announced so far, they say, can offset the abrupt drop in consumer spending and disrupted business activity in China. China has sold 1.32 million tons of corn to feed processing firms in southern provinces to ensure their raw material supply, the state planner said.

Ships carrying refrigerated cargo containers of chicken from the United States to China are being diverted to ports in Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam due to the coronavirus outbreak; the virus, which is causing havoc in the global container shipping trade, is keeping consumers and workers at home in China, delaying purchases at stores and restaurants and slowing the unloading of products at ports.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil has no change as rains continue over the next 6 to 10 days for most of the growing regions with things turning drier the rest of next week. The Argentine weather forecast has rains quieting down over the weekend; a front brings rains Monday and Tuesday of next week before turning quiet the second half.

Brazilian soy exports to China may drop 7-15% this year due to the U.S.-China trade deal and a likely slowdown caused by the coronavirus outbreak, analysts projected; China is expected to import 54 million tons of soy from Brazil in 2020, down from 58 million tons the previous year

For the week ended February 6th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 22% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 34% with the USDA forecasting a 7% increase on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 26% behind a year ago, shipments 38% behind with the USDA forecasting a 16% decline. U.S. Soybean sales are running 9% ahead of a year ago, shipments 54% ahead with the USDA forecasting a 4% increase on the year

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2020-02-14T14:08:53+00:00 February 14th, 2020|