Feb 18 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are steady to higher. SK is up 2 cents and near 9.05. CK is up 2 cents and near 3.84. WK is up 9 cents and near 5.50. US stocks are lower. Crude is lower. US Dollar is higher.

The death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China reached 1,873 as of the end of Monday. Across mainland China, the number of confirmed infections on Monday, bringing the total number to 73,424. Fact China announced they would start graining March 2 tariff exemptions on 696 US goods is supporting grain futures. Some estimate that China buyers could begin to buy US pork, beef, poultry and dairy products.

China Ag Minister though also stated that the spread of the virus is hurting China domestic poultry industry with closed live markets, shut slaughter and processing plants and limited transportation of feedstuffs.

Trade estimates US March 1 corn stocks near 7,830 mil bu. March-August demand is estimated near 5,930 mil bu. US March 1 soybean stocks are estimated near 2,200 mil bu. March-August soybean use is estimated near 1,745. This suggest cash prices need to find a level to meet demand. Unknown will be do prices need to rally closer to 9.40 SK to buy soybeans and 4.00 CK to buy corn from farmers to satisfy and new China demand.

Fridays USDA Outlook Forum may have gotten a little more interesting if USDA plugs in something for new China demand.

Australia lowered their estimate of their wheat crop to 15.2 mmt from 15.85 previous.

The South American weather forecast for Brazil has moderate rainfall for most of the growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days. The Argentine weather forecast is quiet for the first half of the week with some rains toreturn to return to the northern areas of the south later in the week.

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2020-02-18T13:25:18+00:00 February 18th, 2020|