Mar 23 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are higher. SK is up 9 cents and near 8.71. CK is unchanged and near 3.43. WK is up 14 cents and near 5.53. Number of World coronavirus cases is now near 343,818. US 35,070. US stocks are lower. Trade awaiting for US congress to agree on a stimulus package.  Crude oil is lower.

Soybeans have rallied overnight on concern about US soymeal supply if virus continues to spread.  Last week soymeal futures rallied $20. The rally was due to talk Argentina export pace could be slowed due to the spread of the virus, lower US ethanol production could lower DDG supply which could increase soymeal feed use. China soymeal futures are up the daily limit on similar concerns about plants running efficiently.

Corn futures are unchanged. Corn futures dropped last week despite China buying. Most of this is due to concern US export demand will not meet USDA estimate despite China buying and expected drop in ethanol production due to poor margins. Lower energy prices could also weigh on futures. There is little incentive for buyers until the virus in US is under control. Some could see May corn test a low near 3.10. 

Wheat futures are higher. Wheat futures rallied last week after China bought US HRW and on talk US flour consumption is on the increase as shoppers add to inventory as stay at home rule takes in effect. People are still allowed to go to grocery stores during the stay at home rule.

U.S. weather bottom line for the next ten days will be one of too much moisture in the central and lower Midwest, Delta and interior southeastern states. The wet bias will prevent planting and pre-planting farm activity.

Brazil’s bottom line is one of concern for some crop areas in the southern parts of the nation because of limited rainfall at times over the next two weeks. Going into the dry season with soil moisture rated anything less than excessive in a year like this when half of the corn crop was planted late and 20% very late there could be some significant production cuts due to dryness during reproduction.

Argentina’s bottom line remains mostly good as the nation benefits from rain that fell last week while drying down for a while this week.

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2020-03-23T12:56:11+00:00 March 23rd, 2020|