by Steve Freed,
Grains are lower. SK is down 7 cents and near 8.76. CK is unchanged and near 3.43. WK is down 5 cents and near 5.57. Number of World coronavirus cases is now near 387,354. US 46,168. US stocks are higher. New US stimulus may be helping stocks. Crude oil is higher. Gold is higher.
Soybeans, soymeal and wheat may be seeing some correction from recent rally. Higher US domestic soymeal and what use has helped those markets. Still talk of higher 2020 supply should offer resistance. US farmer is not selling grain but lower ethanol demand and total export demand offsets the lack of farmer selling
Weekly US export inspections had Wheat exports running 9% ahead of a year ago (9% last week) with the USDA currently forecasting a 7% increase on the year, Corn 41% behind a year ago (42% last week) with the USDA down 16% for the season and Soybeans 9% ahead of a year ago (up 10% last week) with the USDA having a 4% increase forecasted on the year
Some crushing plants in Brazil closed due to spread of the virus. Still the soybean crop is estimated near 122 mmt and soybeans are being loaded to China. Brazil soybean crop is estimated to be 70 pct harvested. Brazil corn crop is now estimated near 98 mmt due to dry weather in the south.
Argentina export situation remains confused with one port slowing shipping. Argentina soybean crop is est near 51 mmt. The crop is rated 35 pct good/ex vs 71 3 weeks ago. Their corn crop is est near 49 pct good/ex with 13 pct harvested. The crop is rated 31 pct good/ex down 24 pct in 3 weeks.
USDA raised their weekly US winter wheat crop ratings. KS is 48 pct good/ex vs 46 last week, TX 49 vs 36, OK 77 vs 67, CO 55 vs 46 and AR 43 vs 39.
In US, most of east Midwest south and SE will see above average rains and normal temps. April could see warmer temps but could now also see normal rains.
In Argentina, a round of beneficial shower and thunderstorm activity will impact southern and far western crop areas of the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Occasional shower and thunderstorm activity is likely in southern Argentina the next two weeks which will limit any crop losses. Dryness will likely continue in northeastern Argentina through this week before greater rain occurs in the second week of the outlook.
In Brazil, concern remains for some crops in the south due to ongoing dryness. Greater erratic shower and thunderstorm activity will likely start this weekend. However, this rain will need to be significant due to monsoonal rains withdrawing later in April
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