Mar 31 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Month end. USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SK is down 4 cents and near 8.78. CK is up 1 cent and near 3.41. WK is up 1 cent and near 5.71. USDA 2020 acreage and March 1 grain stocks report is today. Markets continue to focus on new COVID 19 virus news. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher.   

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 45 cents; HRW up 33; HRS up 8; Corn is down 25 cents; Soybeans down 18; Soymeal up $10.00, and; Soyoil down 195 points; Crushing margins are up 18 cents, Oil share down 2 percent.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 41 yuan in Soybeans, down 5 in Corn, down 40 in Soymeal, down 40 in Soyoil, and down 22 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 68 ringgit at 2,437 (basis June) at midsession on demand concerns.

Over the last 15 years the USDA March 1 corn stocks have been below the average guess 10 times and above 5. Soybean stocks have been below the guess 7 times and above 8 times. Wheat stocks 7 times below and 8 times above.

Over the last 15 years the USDA corn acreage guess has been above the final 10 times and below 5. Soybean acres have been above the guess 9 times and below 6 times. Wheat acres 10 times above and 5 times below.

Last evening’s GFS model run was not as wet as the midday GFS model in the Delta and southeastern states Apr. 7 – 13; however, the weather pattern will still support enough rain for disruption to spring planting. Last evening’s GFS model reduced rainfall in the southern Corn Belt Sunday into next Monday suggesting a longer period of dry-biased conditions for planting to begin.

Last evening’s GFS model run showed a notably strong storm system to promote significant snow from western Nebraska and southern South Dakota through central Minnesota Apr. 12 – 13. Some rain and snow will be possible.

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2020-03-31T12:53:58+00:00 March 31st, 2020|