June 25 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed in quiet trade. SN is unchanged and near 8.70. CN is down 1 cent and near 3.23. WN is up 2 cents and near 4.84. Seasonally, normal US summer weather suggest lower corn and soybean prices. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower.

IMF dropped their estimates of global economy to a negative 5 pct versus 3 pct estimated in April. IMF expected slow growth in 2021 to a positive 3 pct. IMF dropped US growth to a negative 8 pct but expects 2021 to increase by 4 pct. Bank stocks are on the defensive due to low interest rates and drop in economy.

Things will be mainly dry across the Midwest region until rains arrive in the west early Friday and work into the rest of the region later Friday into Saturday. Totals will be light to moderate with good coverage. Last night’s GFS model in showing a general swath of significant rainfall from North Dakota through Tennessee Monday into next Wednesday The 6 to 10 day forecast has showers and thunderstorms firing up mostly in the northeast sections of the Midwest with moderate to good rainfall amounts. Temps are normal to above.

Early KS wheat yields below expectations. Cash price below breakeven which is weighing on land values. Farmers are expected to plant soybeans following wheat harvest. US farmer sitting on record corn supplies unsold. Soybean prices depending upon China buying and 2020 US summer weather.

Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated near 400-900 mt old crop versus 538 last week and 400-1,000 mt new crop versus 1,382 last week. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated near 300-800 mt old crop versus 357 last week and 100-300 mt new crop versus 114 last week. Weekly US export sales are estimated near 250-650 mt versus 504 last week.

Next Tuesday, USDA will release estimates of US June 1 stocks and US 2020 acres by crop. Trade estimates US June 1 soybean stocks near 1,392 mil bu versus 1,783 last year, June 1 corn stocks near 4,959 mil bu versus 5,202 last year and US June 1 wheat stocks near 987 mil bu versus 1,080 last year.

Trade also estimates US 2020 soybean acres near 84.8 million versus USDA March guess of 83.5 and 76.1 last year, US 2020 corn acres near 95.1 million versus USDA March guess of 97.0 and 89.3 last year and US 2020 wheat acres near 44.7 million versus USDA March guess of 44.7and 45.2 last year.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

2020-06-25T12:34:37+00:00 June 25th, 2020|