June 30 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

USDA report day. Grains are lower. SU is down 1 cent near 8.57. CU is down 1 cent and near 3.27. WN is down 4 cents and near 4.82. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. China passed new Hong Kong security laws. Tension between US and China could jeopardize trade deal.

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 43 cents; HRW down 42; HRS down 22; Corn is down 5 cents; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil up 15 points.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 41 yuan, down 5 yuan in Corn, up 10 in Soymeal, up 10 in Soyoil, and up 26 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 13 ringgit at 2,354 (basis September) at mid-session supported by rival oils, Asian equities.

Today’s USDA report should show US corn, soybean and wheat June 1 stocks below last year. Key will be corn. There are rumors the corn number could be below trade average due to lower 2019 crop. US corn acres could be below USDA March guess but soybean acres could be above.

There were no KC wheat, corn or soybean July deliveries. There were 10 soymeal and 2,402 soyoil deliveries. There were 151 SRW and 487 MLS deliveries.

USDA rated the US corn crop 73 pct good/ex. Best crops are in IA, MN, SD and WI. USDA rated the US soybean crop 71 pct good/ex. Best crops are in the west. US winter wheat harvests 41 pct done. USDA dropped spring wheat ratings to69 pct good/ex. US farmer has increase cash sell orders above the corn market.

Overnight rains were in MN, WI and MO. Showers and thunderstorms look to bring moderate rainfall to the eastern sections of the Midwest over the next 2 ½ to 3 days, then dry weather looks to take over. The GFS model for the 6 to 10 day forecast still indicates some rains to fall in this time frame with moderate amounts however, these rains are now indicated to fall mainly in the northern ½ to 2/3rd of MN, WI and MI. Conditions are still expected to be good across much of the Corn Belt, Delta, and southeastern states, with some pockets that are drier than preferred in the Corn Belt due to the erratic nature of the thunderstorm activity

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2020-06-30T12:24:11+00:00 June 30th, 2020|