July 24 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Happy Friday? Grains are mixed. SU is unchanged and near 9.01. CU is unchanged and near 3.27. WU is up  6 cents and near 5.35. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is unchanged but above1,900. Copper is lower.

Tension between US and China increased overnight as China orders a US consulate to close. World markets also concerned about surge in virus cases and impact that could have on economic recovery, US Sec of State fell short of calling for China people to make a regime change.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 1 cent; HRW down 3; HRS unchanged; Corn is down 3 cents; Soybeans up 5; Soymeal up $4.00, and; Soyoil down 5 points. Crushing margins are up 3 at 89 cents; Oil share down 1% at 33%.

September corn is trading between 3.20-3.40. Open interest is high but trade volume remains low. September soybean is trading between  8.86-9.10. Open interest is high. Daily trade volume is also low. Wheat open interest is low and daily trade volume is also low. September Chicago wheat continues to trade between 5.20-5.40. There is some talk that China may have bought as much as 17 mmt World corn for import.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled down 62 yuan, up 29 in Corn, up 27 in Soymeal, up 50 in Soyoil, and up 160 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up at 2,740 (basis October) at midsession, a 5 month high, on ideas of a drop in output due to heavy rains.

Overnight US rains were in Ohio valley. US Midwest should be dry today. U.S. 6-10 day forecast calls for normal to below temps and normal rains in the south. U.S. 11 to 16 day forecast is back to average rainfall and average to a bit below average temps across the Midwest through August 7th.

For the week ended July 16th, U.S. All Wheat sales are running 5% ahead of a year ago, shipments up 1% with the USDA forecasting a 2% decline on the year. U.S. Corn sales are running 12% behind a year ago, shipments 12% behind with the USDA forecasting a 14% decline.  U.S. Soybean sales are running 4% behind a year ago, shipments down 3% with the USDA forecasting a 6% decline on the year, Soymeal sales unchanged on the year, shipments up 4% with an unchanged forecast and Soyoil sales 50% ahead of a year ago, shipments 49% ahead with a 47% increase forecasted.

The International Grains Council (IGC) cut its global wheat crop forecast by 6 million tons to 762 million tons with production in the EU downwardly revised to 125.6 million tons versus a previous projection of 128.4 million. Russia’s wheat crop was seen at 78 million tons, down from a prior projection of 79 million. United States was expected to produce 49.6 million, down from 51.1 million seen previously.

The IGC also lowered its forecast for 2020/21 world corn (maize) production to 1.164 billion tons from a previous projection of 1.172 billion. The U.S. corn crop was cut by nearly 12 million tons to 380.8 million tons following a downward revision by the U.S. Department of Agriculture earlier this month as farmers dialed back their plantings from their original plans. Ukraine’s corn production was, however, upwardly revised to 37 million tons from a previous projection of 34.5 million

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2020-07-24T12:15:29+00:00 July 24th, 2020|