July 31 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Month end. Grains are higher. SU is up 5 cents and near 8.91. CU is up 1 cent and near 3.76. WU is up 4 cents and near 5.34 US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Hong Kong is delaying elections. Pfizer may request FDA approval on a vaccine as early as October. Making 150 million does for Japan.

For the week, SRW Wheat prices are down roughly 5 cents; HRW down 5; HRS unchanged; Corn is down 7 cents; Soybeans down 6; Soymeal up $2.00, and; Soyoil down 10 points. Crushing margins are up 8 at 99 cents; Oil share unchanged at 33%.

For the month, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 40 cents; HRW up 3; HRS down 5; Corn is down 22 cents; Soybeans up 11; Soymeal up $5.00, and; Soyoil up 140 points. Crushing margins are up 14 cents at 99, Oil share up 1 at 33%.

Chinese Ag futures (Sep) settled up 58 yuan in soybeans, up 26 in Corn, down 5 in Soymeal, up 32 in Soyoil, and down 20 in Palm Oil. Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers. As China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high. Since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 27% to about 2,306 yuan ($329) a metric ton, a level last seen in the summer of 2015.

The 6 to 10 day outlook for the US Midwest has rains falling across the regions Friday of next and through the weekend; temps will be running below average over the next 10 days. The 11 to 16 day forecast for the Midwest has the GFS model showing below average rainfall and below average temps. The European above average temps and limited rain.

China is asking for Covid free meat exports from Brazil and is asking for massive testing for the virus in Brazil meatpacking plants. U.S. ports should be very active later in the year as aggressive Chinese bookings have boosted total corn and soybean export sales to modern-day and potentially all-time record levels for July.

Soybeans firmed overnight on hopes of new China buying. 

Frosts over recent mornings in Argentina’s central farm belt piled stress onto wheat crops already suffering from prolonged dry weather, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly report; dry conditions started hitting wheat crops in early June.

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2020-07-31T16:28:57+00:00 July 31st, 2020|