Dec 1 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

New month. Grains are marginally higher. Bulls hope for a better turn around today after Mondays losses. December is usually a quiet trading month. January looks to be more active/volatile. Dec-Jan South America weather and USDA Jan reports key to price action. SF is up 6 cents and near 11.74. SMF is near 391.0. BOF is near 37.88. CH21 is up 2 cents and near 4.28. WH21 is up 2 cents and near 5.87. KWH21 is up 3 cents and near 5.50. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unchanged. Gold is higher. Copper is higher. Vaccine news could be helping stocks. OECD lowered US 2021 economic growth to 3.2 vs 4 previous, eurozone 3.6 vs 5.1 but left China at 8 pct.

Brazil and Argentina will be dry this week, Rains are forecast for central Brazil next week.

One crop scout lowered his estimate of Brazil soybean crop 2 mmt to 130 vs USDA 133. 40-50 pct crop stressed .Same crop scout estimates Argentina soybean crop near 49 mmt vs USDA 51. 30-40 pct of crop stressed. Same crop scout estimates Brazil corn crop down 2 mmt at 104 mmt vs USDA 110. 50-60 pct of crop stressed. Same crop scout estimates Argentina corn crop near 48 mmt vs USDA 50. 40-50 pct of crop stressed.

Trade estimates’ US October soybean crush at a record 196.6 mil bu versus 187.2 last year.

Despite corn futures selloff, most look for higher US corn export to lower US 2021 supplies. Weekly US corn exports near 35 mi bu vs 17 ly. Season to date export 399 vs 238 USDA goal 2,650 vs 1,778 ly

Despite soybean futures selloff, most look for higher US soybean exports to lower US 2021 supplies. Weekly US soybean exports near 75 mi bu vs 58 ly. Season to date export 980 vs 587 USDA 2.200 vs 1,676 ly.

USDA raised US 2021 winter wheat crop ratings to 46 pct good/ex despite continues south plains dryness.  Season to date EU wheat exports 9.3 mmt or down 24 pct from last year. US HRW export prices now lower than France and Germany and only $1 dollar above Russia. Matif wheat futures followed US lower and near 3 week low, Australia near 13 week low.

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2020-12-01T13:04:03+00:00 December 1st, 2020|