by Steve Freed,
USDA report day. Grains are mostly higher. SH is up 5 cents and near 13.77. SMH is near 447.9. BOH is near 42.27. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.93. WH is up 9 cents and near 6.43. KWH is up 8 cents and near 6.02. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is unch. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. Copper is higher. 30 year bond is lower and making new lows.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 47 yuan in soybeans, down 13 in Corn, up 38 in Soymeal, down 164 in Soyoil, and down 154 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were down 95 ringgit at 3,702 (basis March) looking at weaker January exports.
Quiet before the storm. Soybean and corn futures will follow reaction to USDA numbers. Some doubt USDA will make big changes to South America crops which could limit their increase in US exports and drop in carryout. USDA could decide to wait to make changes in February. Demand buying is below the market if initial reaction is negative. Soymeal is higher on slow Argentina exports and higher China domestic prices. Soyoil is lower following lower palmoil prices. Wheat futures are higher on higher Paris wheat futures and no Russia export price offers. Russia may increase wheat export tax.
Average trade guess for US 2020/21 corn carryout is 1,599 mil bu versus 1,702 last month
Average trade guess for World 2020/21 corn end stocks is 283.5 mmt versus 288.9 last month
Average trade guess for US Dec 1 soybean stocks is 2,920 mil bu versus 3,252 last year
Average trade guess for US 2020/21 soybean carryout is 1,599 mil bu versus 1,702 last month
Average trade guess for World 2020/21 soybean end stocks is 82.6 mmt versus 85.6 last month
Average trade guess for US Dec 1 wheat stocks is 1,695 mil bu versus 1,841 last year
Average trade guess for US 2020/21 wheat carryout is 859 mil bu versus 862 last month
Average trade guess for World 2020/21 wheat end stocks is 315.3 mmt versus 316.5 last month
Average trade guess for US 2021 winter wheat acres id 31.5 million versus 30.4 last year.
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