MAY 14 MORNING AG OUTLOOK

by Steve Freed

What a week! Grains are higher. SN is up 26 cents and near 16.10. SX is up 15 cents and near 14.11. SMN is near 430.8. BON is near 66.12. CN is up 9 cents and near 6.83.. CZ is up 14 cents and near 5.72. WN is up 19 cents and near 7.20. KWN is up 16 cents and near 6.74. MWN is up 19 cents and near 7.60. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is higher. Copper is lower.

Soybean futures are back trading higher. Key fundamentals did not change. US 2021/22 soybean demand could be higher than USDA first guess and could drop US carryout below 140 mil bu. This suggest US summer weather will need to be perfect or prices go higher. USDA unprecedent increase in US 2021/22 biofuel soyoil demand should push soyoil prices higher. Argentina soybean harvest is 71 pct done with crop est near 43 mmt.

Concern about US river barge navigation, low US weekly export sales and fact USDA est US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,507 mil bu dropped CN limit down. Talk that the river could reopen later today and that China may now be up to 10-12 mmt new crop US corn bought is supporting prices. USDA first guess of US 2021/22 corn carryout may be 500 too high. Brazil is still dry and crop could drop below 90 mmt. Going into critical US summer weather be prepared for wild and volatile price swings following each

2 week weather forecast. Argentina corn harvest is near 25 pct with crop est near 46 mmt.

Wheat futures were a follower to the limit down move in corn futures. Rains in south US plains and Midwest and Europe also weighed on futures. Continued dryness in Canada prairies, US PNW and north plains is still positive to futures. Talk that S Russia to S Germany weather is turning drier and could remain dry for next 30 days could also be supportive.

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2021-05-14T13:39:10+00:00 May 14th, 2021|