AUGUST 04 MORNING AG OUTLOOK

by Steve Freed

Grains are mixed. SU is up 4 cents and near 13.27. SX is up 3 cents and near 13.22. SMU is near 347.7. BOU is near 62.90. CU is down 1 cent and near 5.49. CZ is down 2 cents and near 5.49. WU is up 2 cents and near 7.28. KWU is up 1 cent and near 7.08. MWU is down 2 cents and near 9.17. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Impact of global Delta virus spread?

MN, WI, NE IA, NW IL rains next 5 days. 8-14 Midwest weather; warm, dry west normal rains east

StoneX estimated US 2021 soybean crop near 4,332 mil bu vs USDA 4,405. Yield 50

StoneX estimated IL soybean yield 61.5 vs 59 ly, OH 57 vs 54, IA 57 vs 53, MN 47 vs 49, ND 29 vs 33.5.

StoneX estimated US 2021 corn crop near 14,945mil bu vs USDA 15,165. Yield 176.9

StoneX estimated IL corn yield 203 vs 192 ly, OH 192 vs 171, IA 199 vs 178, MN 181 vs 192, NE 182/181

Strong debate if USDA NASS est US corn yield at 181 like last August and soybean 53.

Talk that US corn crop seeing rust, leaf blight on leaves and rootworms. Dry areas seeing leaves firing

US east soybean pod count record high. Final yields there dependent on August rains.

Some China soybean crushers need soybeans. Looking for lower US prices, Brazil Oct. Brazil Jan/Feb

China needs corn. Could take more 21/22 imports than last year. Wheat sprout damage increase corn?

Key to China corn and soybean import demand is size of current hog herd and will it expand

Brazil August soybean vessel line up 4.8 mmt. Shipped 5.8 ly. Corn line up 2.8 mmt vs 6.7 shipped ly

Egypt President calling for first increase in bread prices since 1977.

US wheat exports prices premium to World sellers. Lower spring crop, ensure domestic supply.

US wheat prices may need to rally to increase 2022 acres. Strong competition with corn, SB, sorghum

The information conveyed by ADMIS or it’s affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity future contracts.

2021-08-04T13:40:01+00:00 August 4th, 2021|