by Steve Freed,
Grains are higher. SX is up 9 cents and near 12.92. SMZ is near 343.2. BOZ is near 57.65. CZ is up 5 cents and near 5.26. WZ is up 3 cent3 and near 7.04. KWZ is up 3 cents and near 7.05. MWZ is up 2 cents and near 8.89.
US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Gold is lower. Crude is higher.
Hope of more US gulf elevators will soon be operational is helping US fob corn and soybean basis.
Dry US 2 week Midwest weather forecast should speed up maturation and harvest. Top in yields.
Dalian soyoil, palmoil and corn futures are higher. Soybean is lower. China buying expensive Brazil beans. China buying rallied Brazil soybean price. But lowered soybean crush margins. Crush slowing. Argentina lowered 2022 soybean crop to 44 mmt vs USDA 52. Raised corn to record 55 mmt.
USDA est Brazil 2022 soybean crop at 144 mmt vs 137 ly, Argentina 52.0 vs 46 last year. USDA est Brazil 2022 corn crop 118 mmt vs 86 ly. Argentina 53 vs 50. Early US corn yields below est.
Lower Canada canola crop is helping World rapeseed prices. Higher demand helping palmoil.
Trade still thinks Russia and EU wheat exports will be below USDA est. World demand higher. Argentina raised wheat crop to 20 mmt after last week rains. China buying French feed wheat.
Most will use USDA 176.3 corn, 50.6 soybean yields. Dry end to summer has some near 173.0 and 49.5.
Most analyst est US 20/21 corn carryout near USDA 1,187, but 21/22 near 1,200 vs USDA 1,408. Most analyst est US 20/21 soybean carryout near USDA 175, but 21/22 near 150 vs USDA 185. Most analyst est US 21/22 wheat carryout near 565 vs USDA 615. Key imports and demand.
Weekly US ethanol production and stocks could be up slightly from last week.
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