DEC 1st MORNING AG OUTLOOK

New Month. Markets still volatile. Grains are higher. SF is up 11 cents and near 12.29. SMH is near 341.4. BOH is near 55.99. CH is up 6 cents and near 5.73. WH is up 9 cents and near 7.96. KWH is up 7 cents and near 8.29. MWZ is up 11 cents and near 10.21.

US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Crude down 20 pct from October high. US Dollar is lower.  Coffee, sugar, cotton, gold and copper are higher. Hedge funds back buying. Risk on.

Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil, soyoil and corn futures are lower. Virus spreading in China

US south plains dry. S Brazil and Argentiina drying. Austraial rains. EU normal. Russia drying.

US 30 day Midwest outlook warm and dry. Late December colder. S Brazil/Argentina 90 day dry.

China domestic soymeal buying slowed. Brazil soybean prices through Fed lower than US. US soyoil futures dropped following lower Crude, fact Brazil did not raise biofuel mandate. Matif rapeseed and Canada canola futures lower. US did not announce biofuel mandates.

Matif corn lower. EU imports down stocks dropping. Ukraine corn works into SW and N EU.

Some feel that that 5.60 WH may be a fundamental low if Omicron effect minimal. Same group feels wheat fundamentals not bearish and money flow weighed on futures. Matif wheat futures help support on fact EU export pace too high. Wheat could find new consumer buying at yesterday lows. Australia wet. Canada supplies lower. Russia wheat prices ill defined. December exports down to low supply. No Jan sellers. KWH back near 8.28 support overnight. MWH also back to near 10.25 support.

Wire services will release soon trade estimates for USDA Dec 9 report. US 2021/22 corn carryout near 1,300 vs USDA 1,493, soybean 360-400 vs 340, wheat 583-640.

Weekly US ethanol production near last week, stocks down. Margins remain positive.

comments by Steve Freed

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2021-12-01T19:35:47+00:00 December 1st, 2021|