by Steve Freed
USDA report day. Grains are lower. SH is down 5 cents and near 13.80. SMH is near 410.2. BOH is near 58.75. CH is down 1 cent and near 6.00. WH is down 2 cents and near 7.68. KWH is unch and near 7.91. MWH is up 4 cents and near 9.33. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher and tested 81.00. US CPI data today. Estimate is 7.0 pct and highest since 1982. Fed Chairman comments weighed on treasury rates from high at 1.8. 2022 started at 1.53.
Key today is USDA numbers. Trade will focus on USDA estimate of US 2021/21 corn, soybean and wheat carryout, USDA estimate of South America crops, December 1 US corn, soybean and wheat grain stocks and USDA first estimate of US 2022 winter wheat planted acres. After the report. Trade will focus on South America weather/crops. Forecast is for rains next week.
CH has been in an uptrend since Sep 10 low near 5.06 to a recent high of 6.17. Recent range has been 5.84 to 6.17. Some feel end users could buy 5.84. US farmers could add to sales above 6.17. Over last 16 years, trade has overstated Dec 1 stocks 9 times and was below USDA 7.
SH has been in an uptrend since breaking out above 13.00 on Dec 21 to a recent high of 14.15. Much of the buying was due to concern about SA crops and talk of inflation. Potential range is now between 13.50-14.50. Some fear next weeks SA rains could trigger long liquidation post USDA report. Over last 16 years, trade has overstated Dec 1 stocks 10 times and was below USDA 6.
KWH has been in an steep downtrend since Nov 24 high near 8.92 to a recent low of 7.54. Decline due to slow US export pace and higher South Hemisphere crops. Potential range could be 7.50 to 8.50. Some feel end users could buy 7.50. Over last 16 years, trade has overstated Dec 1 stocks 4 times and was below USDA 11.
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