Morning Ag Commentary 2019-04-02T14:00:40+00:00

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Jan 21 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SH is down 4 cents and near 9.25. CH is down 2 cents and near 3.87. WH is up 2 cents and near 5.73. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Grains unable to follow Fridays higher close. Market awaiting more confirmation of China buying. EU wheat prices higher.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices were up roughly 5 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 1 for the Hard Red Winter, and up 2 for Hard Red Spring; Corn was up 4 cents; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil down 100 points; March crushing margins were down 1 cent at $0.98; March, oil-share was down 1% at 35%.

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 12 ringgit at 2,890 (basis March) over trade uncertainty on production, falling exports

The South American weather forecast for Brazil continues with rainfall for much of the growing regions favoring the north over the next 6 to 10 day period. The Argentine weather forecast has rainfall favoring the northern growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days with things mainly dry for the weekend and next week elsewhere.

With China poised to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural goods this year as part of a Phase 1 China trade deal, the U.S. Agriculture Secretary said there is no need for a third year of trade-related aid for farmers. Farmers have increasingly relied on aid from the U.S. government to survive during the past two years as exports have lagged throughout the U.S.-China trade war. But USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said China will soon begin buying U.S. farm goods to meet the $40 billion in agricultural purchase agreements it made, alleviating growers’ need for more aid.

The phase-two trade deal with China would not necessarily be a “big bang” that removes all existing tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. We may do 2A and some of the tariffs come off; we can do this sequentially along the way

Speculators last week cruised past a comparatively mundane U.S. government data dump as they fixated on the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal, which is set to boost Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods. Investors did not largely alter their positions last week, but uncertainty around the Phase 1 deal and its feasibility leaves grain and oilseed bulls somewhat exposed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture published a slew of fresh supply and demand numbers during the latest Commitments of Traders reporting period, but none of that data proved compelling enough to change investors’ views toward grains and oilseeds, which collectively were very moderately bullish.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

January 21st, 2020|
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Jan 21 Morning Ag Commentary

by Steve Freed,

Grains are mixed. SH is down 4 cents and near 9.25. CH is down 2 cents and near 3.87. WH is up 2 cents and near 5.73. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. Grains unable to follow Fridays higher close. Market awaiting more confirmation of China buying. EU wheat prices higher.

For the week, Winter Wheat prices were up roughly 5 cents for Soft Red Winter, down 1 for the Hard Red Winter, and up 2 for Hard Red Spring; Corn was up 4 cents; Soybeans down 17; Soymeal down $3.00, and; Soyoil down 100 points; March crushing margins were down 1 cent at $0.98; March, oil-share was down 1% at 35%.

The Malaysian Palm Oil market was down 12 ringgit at 2,890 (basis March) over trade uncertainty on production, falling exports

The South American weather forecast for Brazil continues with rainfall for much of the growing regions favoring the north over the next 6 to 10 day period. The Argentine weather forecast has rainfall favoring the northern growing regions over the next 6 to 10 days with things mainly dry for the weekend and next week elsewhere.

With China poised to increase purchases of U.S. agricultural goods this year as part of a Phase 1 China trade deal, the U.S. Agriculture Secretary said there is no need for a third year of trade-related aid for farmers. Farmers have increasingly relied on aid from the U.S. government to survive during the past two years as exports have lagged throughout the U.S.-China trade war. But USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue said China will soon begin buying U.S. farm goods to meet the $40 billion in agricultural purchase agreements it made, alleviating growers’ need for more aid.

The phase-two trade deal with China would not necessarily be a “big bang” that removes all existing tariffs, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said. We may do 2A and some of the tariffs come off; we can do this sequentially along the way

Speculators last week cruised past a comparatively mundane U.S. government data dump as they fixated on the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade deal, which is set to boost Chinese purchases of U.S. farm goods. Investors did not largely alter their positions last week, but uncertainty around the Phase 1 deal and its feasibility leaves grain and oilseed bulls somewhat exposed. The U.S. Department of Agriculture published a slew of fresh supply and demand numbers during the latest Commitments of Traders reporting period, but none of that data proved compelling enough to change investors’ views toward grains and oilseeds, which collectively were very moderately bullish.

The information conveyed by ADMIS or its affiliates to the audience is intended to be instructional and is not intended to direct marketing, hedging or pricing strategy or to guaranty or predict future events, including the pricing and pricing movements of commodities and commodity futures contracts.

January 21st, 2020|
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