August 12 Afternoon Comments

By Steve Freed

Soybeans, soymeal, corn and wheat traded lower after USDA released their monthly US and World supply and demand report. US stocks were sharply lower. Gold was higher. Cattle futures were also sharply lower.


Soybean traded lower despite the fact USDA August estimate of US crop, End stocks and World end stocks were lower than their July guess. USDA Corn numbers were very bearish and weighed on soymeal and soybean prices. USDA estimates US 2019 soybean harvested acres near 75.9 vs 88.1 last year. Yield is 48.5 vs 51.6 last year. IA soybean yield is near 55 vs 57 ly. NE is 58 vs 59 ly. IL is 55 vs 65 ly. IN is 50 vs 58.5 ly. USDA est total 2019/20 soybean demand near 4,016 mil bu vs 4,120 last month and 3,929 last year. Drop is due to lower exports. USDA also dropped 18/19 crush 25 mil bu. USDA est World soybean end stocks near 101.7 mmt vs 104.5 last month and 114.5 last year. China imports are est near 85 mmt vs 87 previous and 83 this year and 94 ly. SX rejected the 8.90 price. Momentum has turned lower. No trade deal with China could pull SX back closer to 8.20.

Soybean Futures Chart


Corn futures locked down the daily limit after the USDA estimated US corn acres, yield, US carryout and World carryout higher than expected. USDA estimated the US 2019 corn acres, yield and carryout higher than expected. This included and FSA report that this year there will be 11.2 million prevent plant corn acres. There is no correlation between FSA prevent plant acres and NASS acres. Some had thought that early on US farmers were intended to plant 98.0 corn acres. The record wet spring according to NAS has brought at number down to 90.0. US farmers were also given the right to plant corn on prevent plant acres. USDA estimates US 2019 corn harvested acres near 82.0 vs 81.7 last year. Yield is now 169.5 vs 166 est in July and 176.4 last year. Some had estimated early on trend yield near 180.0. IA corn yield is near 191 vs 196 ly. NE is 186 vs 192 ly. IL is 181 vs 210 ly. IN is 166 vs 189 ly. USDA estimated total 2019/20 corn demand near 14,130 mil bu vs 14,255 last month and 14,230 last year. Drop is due to lower exports. USDA also dropped ethanol use 25 mil bu. USDA est  World corn end stocks near 307.7 mmt vs 298.9 last month and 328.5 last year. China stocks are est near 195.8 mmt vs 191.8 previous and 211.8 ly. USDA numbers could suggest CZ could test contract lows near 3.63.

Corn Futures Chart


Wheat futures followed corn lower. USDA estimated the 2019 US wheat crop at 1,980 mil bu vs 1,921 in July and 1,884 last Year. The winter wheat crop was 1,326 mil bu vs 1,184 last Year. HRW was 840 vs 662 last year KS was 350 vs 277 last Year. SRW was 257 vs 285 last year. Other spring was 596 mil bu vs 623 last year. Durum was 57 mil bu vs 77 last year. USDA est World 2019/20 wheat crop near 768 mmt vs 771 in July and 730 last year. EU was done 1.3 mmt to 150.0. Russia was down 1.2 to 73.0. World trade was est near 182.6 mmt vs 183.1 est last month and 173.1 last year. Russia is 34 mmt, EU is 26.5. Canada is 24.0. Ukraine is 19.5. US is 26.5. USDA est World 2019/20 wheat end stocks near 285.4 mmt vs 275.5 last year. China is 188.2.

Wheat Futures Chart

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2019-08-12T19:51:58+00:00 August 12th, 2019|